Salyut-Belgorod 1–1 Znamya Noginsk: Result & Stats

Salyut-Belgorod

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Znamya Noginsk

6/10/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Central'nyj Stadion Energomash

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod58%

×Draw22%

Znamya Noginsk20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salyut-BelgorodExpected goals in this matchZnamya Noginsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.00

Salyut-Belgorod

1.89

Znamya Noginsk

1.00

Salyut-Belgorod creates 89% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod

2.00

Znamya Noginsk

1.13

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod

0.87

Znamya Noginsk

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Znamya Noginsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw

80%

Salyut-Belgorod or Znamya Noginsk

78%

Draw or Znamya Noginsk

42%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+

34%

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals

85%

Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals

56%

Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals

29%

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

63%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

26%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)

75%

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.87 · 83 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 2.00 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more

58%

level

22%

Znamya Noginsk scores more

20%

Salyut-Belgorod at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff