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Znamya Noginsk vs Rodina Moskva — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
10/19/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Znamya Noginsk30%
×Draw25%
Rodina Moskva45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.24
Rodina Moskva
1.58

Rodina Moskva creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 16 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Rodina Moskva
1.81

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Rodina Moskva
0.88

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
55%
Znamya Noginsk or Rodina Moskva
75%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
70%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
13%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
71%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
35%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
13%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
79%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
47%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
40%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rodina Moskva attack 1.81 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
30%
level
25%
Rodina Moskva scores more
45%

Rodina Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Znamya Noginsk 4-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.