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Rodina Moskva vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
8/29/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva70%
×Draw17%
Znamya Noginsk13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
2.46
Znamya Noginsk
0.97

Rodina Moskva creates 154% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
3.13
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.81
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
87%
Rodina Moskva or Znamya Noginsk
83%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
30%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
47%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
91%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
70%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
44%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
62%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
25%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
84%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 3.13 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.46

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
70%
level
17%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
13%

Rodina Moskva at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Znamya Noginsk

Rodina Moskva beat Znamya Noginsk 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moskva.