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Znamya Noginsk vs Peresvet Podolsk — Cup 2019

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
9/1/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundSportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Znamya Noginsk42%
×Draw22%
Peresvet Podolsk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.85
Peresvet Podolsk
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Peresvet Podolsk
1.00

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
2.38
Peresvet Podolsk
2.33

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
64%
Znamya Noginsk or Peresvet Podolsk
78%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
58%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
23%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
84%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
55%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
28%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
82%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
50%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
54%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.00 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
42%
level
22%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
36%

Znamya Noginsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Znamya Noginsk 1–2 Peresvet Podolsk

Peresvet Podolsk beat Znamya Noginsk 2-1 in Cup on September 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.