Peresvet Podolsk 0–1 Znamya Noginsk: Result & Stats

Peresvet Podolsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Znamya Noginsk

4/9/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 2Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk39%

×Draw24%

Znamya Noginsk37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peresvet PodolskExpected goals in this matchZnamya Noginsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.50

Peresvet Podolsk

1.54

Znamya Noginsk

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 55 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.88

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.29

Znamya Noginsk

1.13

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.88

Znamya Noginsk

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Znamya Noginsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw

63%

Peresvet Podolsk or Znamya Noginsk

76%

Draw or Znamya Noginsk

61%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

19%

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

79%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

45%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

20%

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

78%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

44%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

51%

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

39%

level

24%

Znamya Noginsk scores more

37%

Peresvet Podolsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peresvet Podolsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff