Znamya Noginsk 3–1 Metallurg Vidnoye

Znamya Noginsk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

4/18/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Znamya Noginsk64%

×Draw19%

Metallurg Vidnoye17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya NoginskExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.06

Znamya Noginsk

2.23

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.06

Znamya Noginsk creates 110% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

1.59

creates per match

0.77

1.36

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.59

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.36

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw

83%

Znamya Noginsk or Metallurg Vidnoye

81%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

36%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

40%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

89%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

65%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

38%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

65%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

29%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

79%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.23

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more

64%

level

19%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

17%

Znamya Noginsk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff