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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
10/5/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye37%
×Draw23%
Znamya Noginsk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.66
Znamya Noginsk
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
60%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Znamya Noginsk
77%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
63%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
19%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
81%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
49%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
23%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
82%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
52%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
48%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
37%
level
23%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
40%

Znamya Noginsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Vidnoye vs Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat Metallurg Vidnoye 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.