Znamya Noginsk 4–1 FK Spartak Tambov

Znamya Noginsk

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FK Spartak Tambov

5/5/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Znamya Noginsk37%

×Draw26%

FK Spartak Tambov38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya NoginskExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Tambov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.39

Znamya Noginsk

1.36

FK Spartak Tambov

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 63 away

1.59

creates per match

1.41

1.36

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.59

FK Spartak Tambov

1.41

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.36

FK Spartak Tambov

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw

62%

Znamya Noginsk or FK Spartak Tambov

74%

Draw or FK Spartak Tambov

63%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

17%

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

74%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

39%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

16%

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals

75%

FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals

40%

FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

49%

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more

37%

level

26%

FK Spartak Tambov scores more

38%

FK Spartak Tambov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff