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FK Spartak Tambov vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
6/4/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 11Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov50%
×Draw25%
Znamya Noginsk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Tambov
1.63
Znamya Noginsk
1.08

FK Spartak Tambov creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.47
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.03
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw
75%
FK Spartak Tambov or Znamya Noginsk
75%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
50%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
26%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
80%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
48%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
22%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
66%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
29%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
67%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more
50%
level
25%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
25%

FK Spartak Tambov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: FK Spartak Tambov 1–2 Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat FK Spartak Tambov 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Tambov.