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Znamya Noginsk vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fakel II
Fakel II
5/30/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Znamya Noginsk61%
×Draw21%
Fakel II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.98
Fakel II
0.95

Znamya Noginsk creates 108% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
82%
Znamya Noginsk or Fakel II
79%
Draw or Fakel II
39%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
37%
Fakel II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
86%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
59%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
31%
Fakel II 1+ goals
61%
Fakel II 2+ goals
25%
Fakel II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
78%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
61%
level
21%
Fakel II scores more
18%

Znamya Noginsk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Fakel II

Znamya Noginsk and Fakel II drew 3-3 in Second League - Group 3 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.