Fakel II 2–0 Znamya Noginsk: Result & Stats

Fakel II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Znamya Noginsk

4/16/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II34%

×Draw25%

Znamya Noginsk41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel IIExpected goals in this matchZnamya Noginsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.48

Fakel II

1.34

Znamya Noginsk

1.48

Znamya Noginsk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

0.90

creates per match

1.13

1.83

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Fakel II

0.90

Znamya Noginsk

1.13

allows per match

Fakel II

1.83

Znamya Noginsk

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Znamya Noginsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw

59%

Fakel II or Znamya Noginsk

75%

Draw or Znamya Noginsk

66%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+

15%

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals

74%

Fakel II 2+ goals

39%

Fakel II 3+ goals

15%

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

77%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

43%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)

46%

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.34

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fakel II scores more

34%

level

25%

Znamya Noginsk scores more

41%

Znamya Noginsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff