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Znamya Noginsk vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
11/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Znamya Noginsk37%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Vladivostok38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
62%
Znamya Noginsk or Dinamo Vladivostok
75%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
63%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
75%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
40%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
41%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
49%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
37%
level
25%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
38%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Dinamo Vladivostok

Znamya Noginsk and Dinamo Vladivostok drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.