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Dinamo Vladivostok vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
7/19/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok54%
×Draw24%
Znamya Noginsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.70
Znamya Noginsk
0.98

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 73% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
78%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Znamya Noginsk
76%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
46%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
30%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
51%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
24%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
62%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
26%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
71%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
54%
level
24%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
22%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vladivostok vs Znamya Noginsk

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Znamya Noginsk 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.