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Znamya Noginsk vs Arsenal Tula II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
5/28/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Znamya Noginsk46%
×Draw24%
Arsenal Tula II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.64
Arsenal Tula II
1.27

Znamya Noginsk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 77 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Arsenal Tula II
1.19

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Arsenal Tula II
1.68

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Arsenal Tula II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
70%
Znamya Noginsk or Arsenal Tula II
76%
Draw or Arsenal Tula II
54%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
24%
Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
81%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
49%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
23%
Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
36%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
61%
Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
46%
level
24%
Arsenal Tula II scores more
30%

Znamya Noginsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Noginsk 1–1 Arsenal Tula II

Znamya Noginsk and Arsenal Tula II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.