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Arsenal Tula II vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
4/29/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Arsenal Tula II48%
×Draw24%
Znamya Noginsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.65
Znamya Noginsk
1.21

Arsenal Tula II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 55 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
72%
Arsenal Tula II or Znamya Noginsk
76%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
52%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
25%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
81%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
49%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
23%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
70%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
34%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
63%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
48%
level
24%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
28%

Arsenal Tula II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Arsenal Tula II 2–0 Znamya Noginsk

Arsenal Tula II beat Znamya Noginsk 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.