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Zmaj Makarska vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
3 – 2
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
10/10/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Makarska62%
×Draw20%
Zmaj Blato18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
2.18
Zmaj Blato
1.07

Zmaj Makarska creates 104% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 25 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
82%
Zmaj Makarska or Zmaj Blato
80%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
38%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
39%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
89%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
64%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
37%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
66%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
29%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
78%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.18

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
62%
level
20%
Zmaj Blato scores more
18%

Zmaj Makarska at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zmaj Makarska vs Zmaj Blato

Zmaj Makarska beat Zmaj Blato 3-2 in Third NL - Jug on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.