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Zmaj Blato vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
1 – 1
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
4/28/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 26Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato60%
×Draw23%
Zmaj Makarska17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.82
Zmaj Makarska
0.86

Zmaj Blato creates 112% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 78 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
83%
Zmaj Blato or Zmaj Makarska
77%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
40%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
35%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
84%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
54%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
27%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
58%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
21%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
78%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
60%
level
23%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
17%

Zmaj Blato at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zmaj Blato 1 – 1 Zmaj Makarska

Zmaj Blato and Zmaj Makarska drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.