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Zmaj Makarska vs Val Kaštel Stari — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
3 – 3
Val Kaštel Stari
Val Kaštel Stari
9/11/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zmaj Makarska56%
×Draw22%
Val Kaštel Stari22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.96
Val Kaštel Stari
1.13

Zmaj Makarska creates 73% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Val Kaštel Stari
1.20

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Val Kaštel Stari
2.63

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Val Kaštel Stari+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Val Kaštel Stari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
78%
Zmaj Makarska or Val Kaštel Stari
78%
Draw or Val Kaštel Stari
44%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
33%
Val Kaštel Stari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
86%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
58%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
31%
Val Kaštel Stari 1+ goals
68%
Val Kaštel Stari 2+ goals
31%
Val Kaštel Stari 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
72%
Val Kaštel Stari (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Val Kaštel Stari away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Val Kaštel Stari defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.96

Val Kaštel Stari attack 1.20 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
56%
level
22%
Val Kaštel Stari scores more
22%

Zmaj Makarska at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Makarska 3–3 Val Kaštel Stari

Zmaj Makarska and Val Kaštel Stari drew 3-3 in Third NL - Jug on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.