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Val Kaštel Stari vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Val Kaštel Stari
Val Kaštel Stari
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
3/15/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Igralište Vukovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Val Kaštel Stari62%
×Draw21%
Zmaj Makarska17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Val Kaštel Stari
2.02
Zmaj Makarska
0.96

Val Kaštel Stari creates 110% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

creates per match

Val Kaštel Stari
1.83
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Val Kaštel Stari
1.27
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Val Kaštel Stari+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Val Kaštel Stari ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Val Kaštel Stari or draw
83%
Val Kaštel Stari or Zmaj Makarska
79%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
38%

Winning margin

Val Kaštel Stari wins by 2+
38%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Val Kaštel Stari 1+ goals
87%
Val Kaštel Stari 2+ goals
60%
Val Kaštel Stari 3+ goals
33%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
62%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
25%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Val Kaštel Stari (draw refunded)
78%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Val Kaštel Stari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Val Kaštel Stari attack 1.83 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Val Kaštel Stari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Val Kaštel Stari scores more
62%
level
21%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
17%

Val Kaštel Stari at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Val Kaštel Stari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Val Kaštel Stari 5–0 Zmaj Makarska

Val Kaštel Stari beat Zmaj Makarska 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište Vukovar in Kaštel Stari.