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Zmaj Makarska vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
2 – 1
RNK Split
RNK Split
10/9/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zmaj Makarska44%
×Draw26%
RNK Split30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.46
RNK Split
1.15

Zmaj Makarska creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
70%
Zmaj Makarska or RNK Split
74%
Draw or RNK Split
56%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
22%
RNK Split wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
77%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
43%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
18%
RNK Split 1+ goals
68%
RNK Split 2+ goals
32%
RNK Split 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
60%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
44%
level
26%
RNK Split scores more
30%

Zmaj Makarska at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Makarska 2–1 RNK Split

Zmaj Makarska beat RNK Split 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.