Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RNK Split vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
1 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
10/8/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 7Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split64%
×Draw21%
Zmaj Makarska15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.94
Zmaj Makarska
0.82

RNK Split creates 137% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 78 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
85%
RNK Split or Zmaj Makarska
79%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
36%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
38%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
86%
RNK Split 2+ goals
58%
RNK Split 3+ goals
30%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
56%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
20%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
81%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

RNK Split scores more
64%
level
21%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
15%

RNK Split at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: RNK Split 1–0 Zmaj Makarska

RNK Split beat Zmaj Makarska 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.