Zmaj Makarska 0–0 Omiš: Result & Stats

Zmaj Makarska

FT

0 – 0

Omiš

4/17/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 24Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zmaj Makarska56%

×Draw25%

Omiš20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zmaj MakarskaExpected goals in this matchOmiš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.86

Zmaj Makarska

1.64

Omiš

0.86

Zmaj Makarska creates 91% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

1.28

creates per match

0.67

1.06

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.28

Omiš

0.67

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.06

Omiš

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Omiš+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Omiš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw

80%

Zmaj Makarska or Omiš

75%

Draw or Omiš

44%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

30%

Omiš wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

81%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

49%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

23%

Omiš 1+ goals

58%

Omiš 2+ goals

21%

Omiš 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

74%

Omiš (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Omiš away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Omiš defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Omiš attack 0.67 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more

56%

level

25%

Omiš scores more

20%

Zmaj Makarska at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff