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Omiš vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
11/2/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 11Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš62%
×Draw22%
Zmaj Makarska17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
1.92
Zmaj Makarska
0.88

Omiš creates 118% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 78 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
83%
Omiš or Zmaj Makarska
78%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
38%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
37%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
85%
Omiš 2+ goals
57%
Omiš 3+ goals
30%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
59%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
22%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
79%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Omiš scores more
62%
level
22%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
17%

Omiš at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Omiš 2–0 Zmaj Makarska

Omiš beat Zmaj Makarska 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.