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Zmaj Makarska vs Hrvace — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
0 – 1
Hrvace
Hrvace
5/22/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 31Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Zmaj Makarska46%
×Draw26%
Hrvace28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.44
Hrvace
1.06

Zmaj Makarska creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 42 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Hrvace
1.07

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Hrvace
1.60

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
72%
Zmaj Makarska or Hrvace
74%
Draw or Hrvace
54%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
22%
Hrvace wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
76%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
42%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
18%
Hrvace 1+ goals
65%
Hrvace 2+ goals
29%
Hrvace 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
62%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hrvace attack 1.07 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
46%
level
26%
Hrvace scores more
28%

Zmaj Makarska at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zmaj Makarska vs Hrvace

Hrvace beat Zmaj Makarska 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.