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Hrvace vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvace
Hrvace
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
5/1/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hrvace65%
×Draw20%
Zmaj Makarska14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvace
2.02
Zmaj Makarska
0.81

Hrvace creates 149% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 78 away

creates per match

Hrvace
1.83
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Hrvace
0.98
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw
86%
Hrvace or Zmaj Makarska
80%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
35%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+
41%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals
87%
Hrvace 2+ goals
60%
Hrvace 3+ goals
33%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
56%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
19%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)
82%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 1.83 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Hrvace defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hrvace scores more
65%
level
20%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
14%

Hrvace at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Hrvace 3–0 Zmaj Makarska

Hrvace beat Zmaj Makarska 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hrvace.