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Zmaj Makarska vs GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
2 – 2
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
8/26/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Zmaj Makarska43%
×Draw27%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.38
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.12

Zmaj Makarska creates 23% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.18

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.47

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
70%
Zmaj Makarska or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
73%
Draw or GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
57%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
20%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
75%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
40%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
16%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
67%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
31%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
58%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.18 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
43%
level
27%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
30%

Zmaj Makarska at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Makarska 2–2 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

Zmaj Makarska and GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica drew 2-2 in Third NL - Jug on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.