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GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
5/10/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 27Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica63%
×Draw22%
Zmaj Makarska16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.92
Zmaj Makarska
0.83

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 131% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 78 away

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.62
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.02
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw
84%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or Zmaj Makarska
78%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
37%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
38%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
85%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
57%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
30%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
56%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
20%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
80%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
63%
level
22%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
16%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs Zmaj Makarska

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat Zmaj Makarska 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jure Bakotić in Kaštel Gomilica.