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Zmaj Blato vs Zagora — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
CANC
00:00
Zagora
Zagora
4/5/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 22Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato43%
×Draw25%
Zagora32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.50
Zagora
1.27

Zmaj Blato creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Zagora
1.47

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Zagora
1.57

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
68%
Zmaj Blato or Zagora
75%
Draw or Zagora
57%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
21%
Zagora wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
78%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
44%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
19%
Zagora 1+ goals
72%
Zagora 2+ goals
36%
Zagora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
57%
Zagora (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Zagora away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Zagora defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zagora attack 1.47 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
43%
level
25%
Zagora scores more
32%

Zmaj Blato at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zmaj Blato face Zagora (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug returns with Zmaj Blato hosting Zagora. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zmaj Blato host Zagora at Igralište Zlinje.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.