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Zagora vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
6 – 0
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
10/5/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 7Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zagora76%
×Draw14%
Zmaj Blato10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.88
Zmaj Blato
0.98

Zagora creates 194% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 25 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
90%
Zagora or Zmaj Blato
86%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
24%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
55%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
94%
Zagora 2+ goals
78%
Zagora 3+ goals
54%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
62%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
26%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
88%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.88

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Zagora scores more
76%
level
14%
Zmaj Blato scores more
10%

Zagora at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagora vs Zmaj Blato

Zagora beat Zmaj Blato 6-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.