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Zmaj Blato vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
4 – 0
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
9/17/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato49%
×Draw26%
Uskok Klis25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.50
Uskok Klis
0.99

Zmaj Blato creates 52% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 87 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
75%
Zmaj Blato or Uskok Klis
74%
Draw or Uskok Klis
51%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
25%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
78%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
44%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
19%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
63%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
26%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
66%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
49%
level
26%
Uskok Klis scores more
25%

Zmaj Blato at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 4–0 Uskok Klis

Zmaj Blato beat Uskok Klis 4-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 17, 2019.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.