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Uskok Klis vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
FT
3 – 0
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
6/12/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 34Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Uskok Klis71%
×Draw16%
Zmaj Blato13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uskok Klis
2.60
Zmaj Blato
1.01

Uskok Klis creates 157% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 25 away

creates per match

Uskok Klis
2.13
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Uskok Klis
0.94
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw
87%
Uskok Klis or Zmaj Blato
84%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
29%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+
49%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals
92%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
73%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
47%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
64%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
27%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
85%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.60

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Uskok Klis scores more
71%
level
16%
Zmaj Blato scores more
13%

Uskok Klis at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uskok Klis vs Zmaj Blato

Uskok Klis beat Zmaj Blato 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion iza Grada in Klis.