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Zmaj Blato vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
4 – 0
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
9/5/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 2Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato57%
×Draw23%
Urania Baška Voda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.78
Urania Baška Voda
0.95

Zmaj Blato creates 87% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
80%
Zmaj Blato or Urania Baška Voda
77%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
43%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
32%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
83%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
53%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
26%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
61%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
25%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
74%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.78

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
57%
level
23%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
20%

Zmaj Blato at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 4–0 Urania Baška Voda

Zmaj Blato beat Urania Baška Voda 4-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.