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Urania Baška Voda vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
5 – 0
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
3/24/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 19Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Urania Baška Voda63%
×Draw19%
Zmaj Blato18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
2.31
Zmaj Blato
1.15

Urania Baška Voda creates 101% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 25 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
82%
Urania Baška Voda or Zmaj Blato
81%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
37%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
41%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
90%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
67%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
40%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
68%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
32%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
78%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.31

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
63%
level
19%
Zmaj Blato scores more
18%

Urania Baška Voda at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urania Baška Voda vs Zmaj Blato

Urania Baška Voda beat Zmaj Blato 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.