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Zmaj Blato vs Primorac Biograd — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
1 – 0
Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
10/28/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato50%
×Draw25%
Primorac Biograd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.61
Primorac Biograd
1.06

Zmaj Blato creates 52% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Primorac Biograd
1.03

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Primorac Biograd
1.78

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Primorac Biograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
75%
Zmaj Blato or Primorac Biograd
75%
Draw or Primorac Biograd
50%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
26%
Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
80%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
48%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
22%
Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
65%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
29%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
67%
Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
50%
level
25%
Primorac Biograd scores more
25%

Zmaj Blato at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 1–0 Primorac Biograd

Zmaj Blato beat Primorac Biograd 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.