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Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
CANC
15:00
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
5/16/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 29Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Primorac Biograd64%
×Draw19%
Zmaj Blato17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
2.40
Zmaj Blato
1.17

Primorac Biograd creates 105% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 25 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
83%
Primorac Biograd or Zmaj Blato
81%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
36%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
42%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
91%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
69%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
42%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
69%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
33%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
79%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.40

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
64%
level
19%
Zmaj Blato scores more
17%

Primorac Biograd at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primorac Biograd face Zmaj Blato (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug returns with Primorac Biograd hosting Zmaj Blato. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Primorac Biograd host Zmaj Blato at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.