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Zmaj Blato vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
4 – 1
Otok
Otok
4/10/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 22Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato62%
×Draw21%
Otok17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
2.07
Otok
0.98

Zmaj Blato creates 111% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Otok
0.88

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Otok
2.70

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
83%
Zmaj Blato or Otok
79%
Draw or Otok
38%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
38%
Otok wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
87%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
61%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
34%
Otok 1+ goals
62%
Otok 2+ goals
26%
Otok 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
78%
Otok (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.07

Otok attack 0.88 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
62%
level
21%
Otok scores more
17%

Zmaj Blato at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 4–1 Otok

Zmaj Blato beat Otok 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.