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Otok vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Otok
Otok
FT
4 – 1
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
9/19/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 5Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Otok63%
×Draw18%
Zmaj Blato19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otok
2.63
Zmaj Blato
1.42

Otok creates 85% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Otok
2.18
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Otok
1.76
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Otok+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Otok or draw
81%
Otok or Zmaj Blato
82%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
37%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+
42%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals
93%
Otok 2+ goals
73%
Otok 3+ goals
48%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
76%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
41%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)
76%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.63

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Otok scores more
63%
level
18%
Zmaj Blato scores more
19%

Otok at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Otok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otok 4 – 1 Zmaj Blato

Otok beat Zmaj Blato 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Športski Centar Gola Brda in Otok.