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Zmaj Blato vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
CANC
00:00
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
3/22/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 20Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zmaj Blato48%
×Draw25%
NK Zadar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.55
NK Zadar
1.10

Zmaj Blato creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
73%
Zmaj Blato or NK Zadar
75%
Draw or NK Zadar
52%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
24%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
79%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
46%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
20%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
67%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
30%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
64%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
48%
level
25%
NK Zadar scores more
27%

Zmaj Blato at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zmaj Blato host NK Zadar

March 22, 2020: Zmaj Blato take on NK Zadar in Third NL - Jug. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zmaj Blato host NK Zadar at Igralište Zlinje.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.