NK Zadar 1–1 Zmaj Blato: Result & Stats

NK Zadar

FT

1 – 1

Zmaj Blato

9/21/2019

Third NL - Jug · South - 5Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Zadar69%

×Draw17%

Zmaj Blato14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchZmaj Blato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.10

NK Zadar

2.59

Zmaj Blato

1.10

NK Zadar creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

2.11

creates per match

1.08

1.11

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

NK Zadar

2.11

Zmaj Blato

1.08

allows per match

NK Zadar

1.11

Zmaj Blato

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Zmaj Blato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

86%

NK Zadar or Zmaj Blato

83%

Draw or Zmaj Blato

31%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

47%

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

92%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

73%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

47%

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals

67%

Zmaj Blato 2+ goals

30%

Zmaj Blato 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

83%

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 2.11 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.59

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + NK Zadar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

NK Zadar scores more

69%

level

17%

Zmaj Blato scores more

14%

NK Zadar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff