Zmaj Blato 0–2 Kamen Ivanbegovina: Result & Stats

Zmaj Blato

FT

0 – 2

Kamen Ivanbegovina

9/1/2019

Third NL - Jug · South - 1Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato63%

×Draw20%

Kamen Ivanbegovina16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zmaj BlatoExpected goals in this matchKamen Ivanbegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.94

Zmaj Blato

2.08

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.94

Zmaj Blato creates 121% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

1.44

creates per match

0.80

1.08

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Zmaj Blato

1.44

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.80

allows per match

Zmaj Blato

1.08

Kamen Ivanbegovina

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw

84%

Zmaj Blato or Kamen Ivanbegovina

80%

Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina

37%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+

39%

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals

87%

Zmaj Blato 2+ goals

61%

Zmaj Blato 3+ goals

34%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

61%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

24%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)

80%

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more

63%

level

20%

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

16%

Zmaj Blato at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff