Kamen Ivanbegovina 2–3 Zmaj Blato: Result & Stats

Kamen Ivanbegovina

FT

2 – 3

Zmaj Blato

9/30/2020

Third NL - Jug · South - 7Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina64%

×Draw19%

Zmaj Blato17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamen IvanbegovinaExpected goals in this matchZmaj Blato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.18

Kamen Ivanbegovina

2.40

Zmaj Blato

1.18

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 103% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 25 away

1.72

creates per match

1.08

1.28

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.72

Zmaj Blato

1.08

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.28

Zmaj Blato

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Zmaj Blato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw

83%

Kamen Ivanbegovina or Zmaj Blato

81%

Draw or Zmaj Blato

36%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

42%

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

91%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

69%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

42%

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals

69%

Zmaj Blato 2+ goals

33%

Zmaj Blato 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

79%

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.40

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

64%

level

19%

Zmaj Blato scores more

17%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff