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Zmaj Blato vs Hrvace — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
1 – 1
Hrvace
Hrvace
9/8/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 2Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato47%
×Draw26%
Hrvace27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.52
Hrvace
1.08

Zmaj Blato creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 42 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Hrvace
1.07

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Hrvace
1.60

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
73%
Zmaj Blato or Hrvace
74%
Draw or Hrvace
53%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
24%
Hrvace wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
78%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
45%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
20%
Hrvace 1+ goals
66%
Hrvace 2+ goals
29%
Hrvace 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
64%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hrvace attack 1.07 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
47%
level
26%
Hrvace scores more
27%

Zmaj Blato at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 1–1 Hrvace

Zmaj Blato and Hrvace drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.