Hrvace 4–0 Zmaj Blato: Result & Stats

Hrvace

FT

4 – 0

Zmaj Blato

4/3/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hrvace68%

×Draw18%

Zmaj Blato14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HrvaceExpected goals in this matchZmaj Blato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.03

Hrvace

2.46

Zmaj Blato

1.03

Hrvace creates 139% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

1.83

creates per match

1.08

0.98

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Hrvace

1.83

Zmaj Blato

1.08

allows per match

Hrvace

0.98

Zmaj Blato

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Zmaj Blato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw

86%

Hrvace or Zmaj Blato

82%

Draw or Zmaj Blato

32%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+

46%

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals

91%

Hrvace 2+ goals

70%

Hrvace 3+ goals

44%

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals

64%

Zmaj Blato 2+ goals

28%

Zmaj Blato 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)

83%

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 1.83 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.46

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Hrvace defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hrvace scores more

68%

level

18%

Zmaj Blato scores more

14%

Hrvace at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff