Zlin 2–4 Teplice: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Zlin

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Teplice

T. Poznar 19'

D. Machalik 5'

M. Pulkrab 90'

M. Radosta 81'

M. Naprstek 54'

D. Marecek 25'

5/12/2026

Czech Liga · Relegation Group - 3Stadion Letna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Zlin44%

×Draw25%

Teplice31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZlinExpected goals in this matchTeplice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.29

Zlin

1.57

Teplice

1.29

Zlin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.65

creates per match

1.34

1.25

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Zlin

1.65

Teplice

1.34

allows per match

Zlin

1.25

Teplice

1.49

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Zlin-0.52scores less

Teplice+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Teplice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zlin or draw

69%

Zlin or Teplice

75%

Draw or Teplice

56%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+

22%

Teplice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals

79%

Zlin 2+ goals

46%

Zlin 3+ goals

21%

Teplice 1+ goals

72%

Teplice 2+ goals

37%

Teplice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)

58%

Teplice (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.65 + Teplice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Teplice attack 1.34 + Zlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zlin scores more

44%

level

25%

Teplice scores more

31%

Zlin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pulkrab

Teplice · F

8.9

Match Events

5'

D. Machalik↳ L. Bartosak

19'

T. Poznar↳ J. Cernin

25'

D. Marecek

46'

J. Svanda← N. Audinis

46'

B. Nyarko← M. Riznic

54'

M. Naprstek↳ D. Marecek

57'

Tomáš Poznar

62'

M. Pulkrab← M. Kozak

65'

M. Kopecny← L. Bartosak

65'

C. Nombil← K. Penkevics

66'

70'

71'

71'

72'

77'

J. Fortelny← M. Naprstek

81'

M. Radosta↳ M. Pulkrab

82'

J. Kalabiska← J. Didiba

88'

Jakub Černín

90'

M. Pulkrab↳ M. Radosta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZlinTeplice

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots12

1.09Expected Goals (xG)2.83

5Corners2

16Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

385Total Passes355

307Accurate Passes265

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-0.56Goals Prevented-0.56

Discipline

16Fouls19

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Czech Liga: Zlin 2–4 Teplice

Teplice beat Zlin 4-2 in Czech Liga on May 12, 2026.

Goals: D. Machalik (5'), T. Poznar (19'), D. Marecek (25'), M. Naprstek (54'), M. Radosta (81'), M. Pulkrab (90').

Zlin controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Letna in Zlin.

Zlin vs Teplice — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Zlin 2–4 Teplice