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Zlin vs Teplice — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Teplice
Teplice
5/12/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Relegation Group - 3Stadion Letna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Zlin48%
×Draw26%
Teplice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.50
Teplice
1.04

Zlin creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.44
Teplice
1.04

allows per match

Zlin
1.04
Teplice
1.57

finishing

Zlin-0.44scores less
Teplice+0.16scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Teplice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
74%
Zlin or Teplice
74%
Draw or Teplice
52%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
24%
Teplice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
78%
Zlin 2+ goals
44%
Zlin 3+ goals
19%
Teplice 1+ goals
65%
Teplice 2+ goals
28%
Teplice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
65%
Teplice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 6 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.44 + Teplice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Teplice attack 1.04 + Zlin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zlin scores more
48%
level
26%
Teplice scores more
26%

Zlin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Zlin 2–4 Teplice

Teplice beat Zlin 4-2 in Czech Liga on May 12, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Letna in Zlin.