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Teplice vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

Teplice
Teplice
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Zlin
Zlin
7/19/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1AGC Arena Na Stinadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Teplice48%
×Draw26%
Zlin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teplice
1.47
Zlin
0.99

Teplice creates 48% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 104 away

creates per match

Teplice
1.22
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

Teplice
1.19
Zlin
1.72

finishing

Teplice+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Teplice or draw
75%
Teplice or Zlin
74%
Draw or Zlin
52%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+
24%
Zlin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals
77%
Teplice 2+ goals
43%
Teplice 3+ goals
18%
Zlin 1+ goals
63%
Zlin 2+ goals
26%
Zlin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)
65%
Zlin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.22 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zlin attack 0.79 + Teplice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Teplice scores more
48%
level
26%
Zlin scores more
25%

Teplice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Teplice 1–3 Zlin

Zlin beat Teplice 3-1 in Czech Liga on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Teplice.