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Zlin vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
4/4/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 28Stadion Letna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Zlin52%
×Draw23%
FK Jablonec25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.80
FK Jablonec
1.18

Zlin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.44
FK Jablonec
1.31

allows per match

Zlin
1.04
FK Jablonec
2.17

finishing

Zlin-0.44scores less
FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
75%
Zlin or FK Jablonec
77%
Draw or FK Jablonec
48%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
29%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
83%
Zlin 2+ goals
54%
Zlin 3+ goals
27%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
69%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
33%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
67%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 6 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.44 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.80

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Zlin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zlin scores more
52%
level
23%
FK Jablonec scores more
25%

Zlin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Zlin 0–3 FK Jablonec

FK Jablonec beat Zlin 3-0 in Czech Liga on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Letna in Zlin.