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FK Jablonec vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Zlin
Zlin
11/1/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Stadion Strelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

FK Jablonec55%
×Draw24%
Zlin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.67
Zlin
0.91

FK Jablonec creates 84% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 104 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.61
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.02
Zlin
1.72

finishing

FK Jablonec+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
80%
FK Jablonec or Zlin
76%
Draw or Zlin
45%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
30%
Zlin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
81%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
50%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
23%
Zlin 1+ goals
60%
Zlin 2+ goals
23%
Zlin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
73%
Zlin (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.61 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zlin attack 0.79 + FK Jablonec defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
55%
level
24%
Zlin scores more
20%

FK Jablonec at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: FK Jablonec 1–3 Zlin

Zlin beat FK Jablonec 3-1 in Czech Liga on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Strelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou.