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Zlin vs České Budějovice — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
České Budějovice
České Budějovice
9/30/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 10Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Zlin48%
×Draw24%
České Budějovice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.73
České Budějovice
1.28

Zlin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 101 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.41
České Budějovice
0.96

allows per match

Zlin
1.60
České Budějovice
2.06

finishing

Zlin+0.00on par
České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

České Budějovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
72%
Zlin or České Budějovice
76%
Draw or České Budějovice
52%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
26%
České Budějovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
82%
Zlin 2+ goals
52%
Zlin 3+ goals
25%
České Budějovice 1+ goals
72%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
37%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
63%
České Budějovice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.06 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.41 + České Budějovice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

České Budějovice attack 0.96 + Zlin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zlin scores more
48%
level
24%
České Budějovice scores more
28%

Zlin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Zlin 1–1 České Budějovice

Zlin and České Budějovice drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.