Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

České Budějovice vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Zlin
Zlin
10/9/2022Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 11Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

České Budějovice44%
×Draw26%
Zlin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.46
Zlin
1.17

České Budějovice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 104 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.19
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.55
Zlin
1.72

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
70%
České Budějovice or Zlin
74%
Draw or Zlin
56%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
21%
Zlin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
77%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
43%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
18%
Zlin 1+ goals
69%
Zlin 2+ goals
33%
Zlin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
59%
Zlin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 99 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.19 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zlin attack 0.79 + České Budějovice defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

České Budějovice scores more
44%
level
26%
Zlin scores more
30%

České Budějovice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: České Budějovice 2–2 Zlin

České Budějovice and Zlin drew 2-2 in Czech Liga on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.