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Zlín II vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
CANC
13:30
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
4/28/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zlín II64%
×Draw19%
Vysočina Jihlava II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
2.23
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.03

Zlín II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
84%
Zlín II or Vysočina Jihlava II
81%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
36%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
41%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
89%
Zlín II 2+ goals
65%
Zlín II 3+ goals
38%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
64%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
28%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
80%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.23

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zlín II scores more
64%
level
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
16%

Zlín II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zlín II vs Vysočina Jihlava II — Match Preview

Zlín II face Vysočina Jihlava II on April 28, 2021 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zlín II host Vysočina Jihlava II at Areál Vlastislava Marečka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.